After the fall of the former military regime in Somalia in the 1991, the Republic of Somalia went into civil wars, clan-politics, clan territories, successionist movements in the north, as well as anarchy and war on terror. Thereafter, a transitional federal government was established in 2005 in Kenya and later it becomes the federal government of Somalia. Federalism as political idea was not known in Somalis political culture and there were so many critics come from scholars as Somalis have no diversity to base federalism.
However, many assumed federalism as suitable method for reconciliation and power sharing in between warring clans of Somalia. It was designed as instrument of decentralization of authority. However, the federal system failed to bring unity, political sovereignty and economic viability to the Somali nation, due to lack of collaboration between some federal members regions and the government of Mogadishu, widespread corruption, clan politics, successionist ambitions, terrorism, foreign intervention and weak legitimacy of the public officials as they are elected by the people.
Today, there are new developments that have been altering realities on the ground. The succession in the north of Somalia and the Israeli intervention of Somali internal affairs are the most threatening aspects of Somali’s statehood and peoplehood since the independence of Somalia in 1960
The situation in the Northern region of Somalia is alarming to the co-existence and unity of the republic of Somalia. However, the successionist movement (current Somaliland administration) is the old SNM mainly from Isaq clan. However, there are significant non-Isaq clans as along clan identities carves out clan minefields with the potential to blow at up any time. The geographical area initially declared as Somaliland is now divided into four different territories:-
a.The Somaliland (geographical area where Isaq clan inhabitants)
b Khaatumo( current federal member state and anti-successionist Somali nationalists)
c. Awdal, and Maakhir states (Anti-successionist nationalist from issa clan and others) The latter three—all populated mainly by non Isaqs are opposing secession. Recent tensions in Buhoodle area that caused many deaths is simply in hibernation.
Clan wars have shifted away from its seemingly perpetual habitat in Mogadishu and its surroundings into places such as Somaliland and Puntland. What is more worrisome than that might be that, unless derailed, threats emanating from religious extremism could also shift into these two regions. And that probability is increased by the fact that some of the highest-ranking al-Shabaab members hail from Somaliland and Puntland.
Similarly, there were excessive political and military interventions by foreign actors in Somalia, Where UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, US, Europe, Turkey and Isreal are fighting for their own interests in Somalia since the fall of the military regime of Siyad Barre. Often these foreign actors have contradictory interests on Somalia. Some of these countries support secessionism and provide safe haven to the Terrorists so that Somalia stays in chaos, division and anarchy.
so, what are the Scenarios to overcome succession that Somali government has?
- Negotiation with Somaliland authorities and provide great concessions and power sharing as semi-autonomous region of Somalia.
- Mobilization of army and anti-successionist clans as well as friends of Somalia and declare war to restore the northern regions (current breakaway region of Somaliland) under the control of Somalia by force.
- Accepting the succession and prepare post-succession transition
However, In politics, there must be a winner and loser, there is no country in the world where opposition and government fights forever, if succession is accepted there will be risk of more successions following. Hence, there must be one big dominant group and rule the country.
Democracy can’t work in Somalia as long as clan politics exists, democracy needs institutions that are durable and permanent only governments change after 4, or 8 years of elections but in Somalia there must be Leviathan one big fish that consumes these small clan-based fishes.
inconclusion, Somalis need strong man like Siyad barre, because they don’t like their country and some of current leaders will sell out the country for their own egos. The country is in very dangerous position; there is a possibility of balkanization in Somalia like what has happened in Yugoslavia. Somalia may split into small, weak and poor clan-based entities. To stop successionist the current government must assert itself and bring on the table both carrot and stick.
Written by: Omar Ahmed Malin